'Izborni Nostradamus'

Američki profesor je točno prognozirao svake izbore za Bijelu kuću od 1984. Evo što kaže za bitku Harris – Trump

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FILE PHOTO: Harris-Trump presidential debate hosted by ABC in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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FILE PHOTO: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former U.S. President Donald Trump in combo photograph
04.11.2024.
u 10:32
Lichtman, poznat po tome što je uspješno predvidio devet od posljednjih deset predsjedničkih izbora, ponovno je istaknuo da vjeruje da će Harris biti sljedeća američka predsjednica
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Allan Lichtman (77), povjesničar kojeg nazivaju "Nostradamusom" američkih predsjedničkih izbora, ostaje pri svojoj prognozi da će potpredsjednica Kamala Harris osvojiti Bijelu kuću 2024. godine unatoč anketama koje daju prednost bivšem predsjedniku Donaldu Trumpu. Lichtman, poznat po tome što je uspješno predvidio devet od posljednjih deset predsjedničkih izbora, ponovno je istaknuo da vjeruje da će Harris biti sljedeća američka predsjednica.

U rujnu se Lichtman kladio na pobjedu demokrata, a svoj stav nije promijenio ni nakon što su objavljeni rezultati anketa koji pokazuju Trumpovu prednost u ključnim državama. "Ništa se nije dogodilo da bi se promijenilo moje predviđanje koje sam dao 5. rujna, namjerno prije navodno 'presudne' debate Trump – Harris – koja se, prema mišljenju stručnjaka, nije pokazala nimalo presudnom", izjavio je Lichtman za američke medije.

FOTO Karijera mu je krenula uz 'tatin poguranac', zarađivao milijarde i doživio bankrote: Dječak plavih očiju opet želi biti prvi čovjek SAD-a

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ARHIVA - Ivana Trump i zaručnik Rossano Rubicondi uživali na Hvaru
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U.S. President Donald Trump visits Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington
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U.S. President Donald Trump visits Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington
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U.S. President Donald Trump visits Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington
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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in Butler
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Former US president Donald Trump playing golf at his Trump Turnberry course in South Ayrshire during his visit to the UK

Njegov model za predviđanje nazvan "Ključevi za Bijelu kuću" razvijen je u suradnji s ruskim seizmologom Vladimirom Keilis-Borokom, a temelji se na 13 ključnih faktora koji, prema Lichtmanovoj teoriji, određuju vjerojatnost pobjede stranke na vlasti ili oporbe. Model je stvoren na temelju istraživanja američkih predsjedničkih izbora od 1860. do 1980. i oslanja se na povijesne i političke čimbenike umjesto na trenutačne ankete. Prema Lichtmanovu sustavu, Harris ima prednost u osam od tih 13 kategorija, dok Trump vodi u samo tri.

Popis 13 faktora uključuje aspekte poput rezultata na "midterm" izborima, postojanja izazivača iz vlastite stranke, stanja kratkoročne i dugoročne ekonomije, prisutnosti ili odsutnosti političkih skandala, društvenih nemira te karizme kandidata i njegova protivnika.  Lichtmanov model razlikuje se od uobičajenih metoda predviđanja jer ignorira anketne podatke i promjenjive političke trendove, koji, kako tvrdi, nisu pouzdani pokazatelji.

VEZANI ČLANCI:

Lichtmanov pristup utemeljen je na dugogodišnjem proučavanju političkih i povijesnih uzoraka. Njegovo najkontroverznije predviđanje bilo je ono za izbore 2000. godine, kada je Al Gore izgubio od Georgea W. Busha. Lichtman je predvidio da će Gore osvojiti izbore, i nije bio potpuno u krivu: Gore je doista dobio većinu glasova na nacionalnoj razini, ali je izgubio u elektorskom sustavu. Od tada je Lichtman prilagodio svoj model da predviđa pobjednika po broju elektorskih glasova, a ne po apsolutnom broju glasova. Lichtmanovo najvažnije predviđanje u posljednje vrijeme bilo je ono iz 2016., kada je unaprijed predvidio da će Donald Trump pobijediti, unatoč tome što je Hillary Clinton dobila više glasova na nacionalnoj razini.

FOTO S ocem nije bliska, o porijeklu ne priča, a udala se s 50 godina nakon spoja na slijepo

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Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan
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Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan
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Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan
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Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan
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Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris arrives at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport in Detroit
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Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan
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Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan
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Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris visits Kuzzo's Chicken & Waffles, in Detroit
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U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris disembarks from Air Force Two upon arrival at Reno-Tahoe International Airport in Reno
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Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Harris campaigns in Georgia

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Komentari 25

Avatar tabadjija
tabadjija
12:55 04.11.2024.

Uvjeren sam da ima i neki profesor koji je predvidio isto 9/10 zadnjih izbora, a koji sad kaze da ve trump objediti.

DI
Dingač
13:08 04.11.2024.

Zaista je sramotno kako neki mediji izvještavaju o političkim događajima. Umjesto da budu neutralni i objektivni, jasno se vidi kako favoriziraju određene kandidate. Takozvani ugledni profesor ne zna tko će pobijediti na izborima, ali očito je njegova želja da to bude Kamala Harris. Ako već moraju pisati gluposti, bolje bi bilo da pitaju neku uglednu gataru za mišljenje.Mediji bi trebali istraživati i pisati o mućkama koje se događaju iza kulisa, jer bi to bilo puno zanimljivije i korisnije za nas. Ovakvo otvoreno navijanje za Kamalu samo pokazuje da su mnogi mediji pod kontrolom jednog čovjeka ili opasne organizacije. Ovo je daleko od dobre informiranosti građana.Državne institucije bi trebale zakonski zabraniti širenje lažnih vijesti i strogo kažnjavati one koji obmanjuju javnost. Sloboda govora u medijima ne znači slobodu laganja bez ikakvih posljedica. Sramotno je što sve pišu i kako manipuliraju ljudima.

Avatar Vrsalj
Vrsalj
12:49 04.11.2024.

Zna se tko broji glasove ili kada dođe kamion sa listićima sve zaokruženo jednako