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Zašto su ankete podcijenile Trumpa? U jednoj državi predvidjele pobjedu Harris, a Trump 'pomeo' s čak 13% razlike

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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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Trump Campaign Election Night Watch Party in Florida
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Trump Campaign Election Night Watch Party in Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Night, at Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida
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Fox News proglasio Trumpa pobjednikom izbora
07.11.2024.
u 10:43
Učinak anketara pomno se pratio ove godine, nakon dva velika promašaja u nizu: nisu uspjeli predvidjeti Trumpovu pobjedu 2016. i precijenili su razliku kojom ga je predsjednik Joe Biden pobijedio 2020.
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Ankete javnog mnijenja podcijenile su razinu potpore Donaldu Trumpu na trećim uzastopnim američkim predsjedničkim izborima. Umjesto predviđene tijesne utrke s Kamalom Harris, republikanac je osvojio sve 'swing' države i uvjerljivo pobijedio. Stručnjaci tvrde da anketari nisu uspjeli točno predvidjeti utrke u saveznim državama u kojima su se rezultati značajno razlikovali od izbora 2020. godine.

"Nisu uspjeli pružiti bitne informacije da je Trump prodirao na sve strane", rekao je Michael Bailey, profesor političkih znanosti na Sveučilištu Georgetown. Više od 90 posto američkih okruga glasalo je za republikanskog milijardera u većem broju nego 2020., objavio je New York Times. Ankete su predviđale nevjerojatno male razlike u utrkama u sedam ključnih država koje odlučuju o rezultatu američkih izbora. Predviđalo se da će Trump osvojiti pet od tih država s razlikom između jednog i tri postotna boda.

Bivši predsjednik, međutim, dobrom je putu da pomete svih sedam saveznih država. "Trump je možda bio blago podcijenjen, ali mislim da su ankete bile prilično dobre, kolektivno - ovo nije bio veliki promašaj", rekao je Kyle Kondik, politički analitičar sa Sveučilišta Virginia. "Ankete su sugerirale da Trump ima pristojne šanse za pobjedu. I on je pobijedio", dodao je. 

Male margine

Učinak anketara pomno se pratio ove godine, nakon dva velika promašaja u nizu: nisu uspjeli predvidjeti Trumpovu pobjedu 2016. i precijenili su razliku kojom ga je predsjednik Joe Biden pobijedio 2020. "Trump je ovaj put podcijenjen za otprilike dva postotna boda" u ključnim državama, rekao je Pedro Azevedo, voditelj američkog istraživanja javnog mnijenja u AtlasIntelu.

POVEZANI ČLANCI:

U Pennsylvaniji je RealClearPolitics stavio republikanca u vodstvo za 0,4 postotna boda. Od srijede je već imao dva postotna boda prednosti. Ankete su Trumpu u Sjevernoj Karolini predviđale prednost od 1,2 boda, a on je pobijedio s tri boda više od Harris.  U Wisconsinu je potpredsjednica dobila prednost od 0,4 boda, ali rezultati su pokazali da Trump vodi s 0,9 bodova.

Nedostaci statističke prilagodbe

Glavni problem postoji još od dolaska Trumpa na američku političku scenu prije desetak godina: dio njegovog biračkog tijela odbija sudjelovati u anketama, a tvrtke nisu uspjele točno izmjeriti njihov utjecaj. U najnovijim anketama koje je proveo New York Times s koledžom Siena, "postojala je 16 posto veća vjerojatnost da će odgovarati bijeli demokrati umjesto bijelih republikanaca", napisao je analitičar podataka NYT-a i anketni guru Nate Cohn dva dana prije izbora.

Taj nesrazmjer porastao je tijekom kampanje 2024., dodao je. Iako su neki anketari pokušali nadoknaditi ove nedostatke statističkim prilagodbama, to očito nije bilo dovoljno. "Očito su ankete značajno podcijenile Trumpov rast među hispanoameričkim biračima", rekao je Azevedo, govoreći o Trumpovim pobjedama u Nevadi i Floridi koje su bile veće od očekivanih. 

>> VEČERNJI TV Ključne poruke Trumpovog govora: 'Dosad je SAD prikazivao u crnom svjetlu, a sada je okrenuo ploču'

"To je bio slučaj i među bijelim biračima", rekao je. Dodao je da je većina anketa očekivala da će Harris "poboljšati svoje rezultate" u ovoj demografskoj skupini, no Trump je nadmašio predviđanja u ruralnim područjima. Iowa je bila izvrstan primjer za to. Prema anketi objavljenoj tri dana prije dana izbora, Harris je u repulikanskoj državi trebala pobijediti s tri postotna boda prednosti. Na kraju je Trump pobijedio s jasnom razlikom od 13 postotnih bodova, rekao je Azevedo.

J. Ann Selzer, autorica te netočne ankete u Iowi, rekla je da su razliku mogli napraviti birači koji su odlučivali u zadnji trenutak.  "Neodlučni su moglo izabrati  Trumpa u posljednjim danima kampanje nakon što su anketiranja završila", rekla je Selzer za list Des Moines Register. "Ljudi koji su već glasali, ali su odlučili da neće reći našim anketarima za koga su glasali, mogli su dati Trumpu prednost", dodala je. 

>> FOTO Karijera mu je krenula uz 'tatin poguranac', zarađivao milijarde i doživio bankrote: Dječak plavih očiju opet je prvi čovjek SAD-a

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Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump campaigns in Georgia
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Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a rally at Madison Square Garden
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FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump greets former Vice President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama after being sworn in as president of the United States at U.S. Capitol in Washington
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U.S. President Donald Trump visits Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington
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U.S. President Donald Trump visits Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington
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U.S. President Donald Trump visits Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington
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U.S. President Donald Trump visits Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington
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U.S. Navy Commander Dr. Sean Conley, the White House physician, arrives to speak about U.S. President Donald Trump's health, in Bethesda
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U.S. President Donald Trump campaigns in Minnesota
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U.S. President Donald Trump campaigns for Republican U.S. senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, in Valdosta, Georgia
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Komentari 5

VA
VanjaPlank
11:48 07.11.2024.

Js sam čuo da su Amerikanci uzeli hrvatski Gong da im rade ankete.Valjda su tako i prošli u anketama

AN
Antonio1952
12:15 07.11.2024.

Isto kao i u Hrvatskoj u prognozama uvijek pobjedjuje lijeva opcija zahvaljujuci medijima. Ako Milanovic uvjerljivo vodi u presjednickim izborima onda ili nismo normalni ili je to laz.

BI
bikica7
20:55 07.11.2024.

Kod nas jos gore, tzv.komunikaciski stručnjaci predviđaju tko im vise stavi eurića na žiro račun. Pred izbore tabraniti komentiranje ovim Vangama.